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NYS Comptroller

THOMAS P. DiNAPOLI

Press Releases

November 5, 2013, Contact: Press Office (518) 474-4015

DiNapoli Releases Quick Start State Budget Analysis for 2014-15

Tax Receipts Projected to Grow 2.5 Percent

State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli projects State Operating Funds revenues will grow by 2.5 percent to $90.1 billion in state fiscal year 2014-15, according to the Comptroller’s annual Quick Start report released today in accordance with the Budget Reform Act of 2007.

“Key measures of the national economy are expected to strengthen next year, including GDP, employment and consumer spending, but more dysfunction in Washington could derail some of this progress,” DiNapoli said. “Overall economic growth in New York State is projected to remain modest in 2014, and while Wall Street is expected to remain profitable, it is still adapting to a changing regulatory and economic environment. Progress has been made over the last three budgets, however, policy makers will continue to be challenged to align recurring spending and revenue.”   

Under state law, the Comptroller, Governor and Legislature are required to separately submit by November 5, separate reports detailing receipts and disbursements estimated for the current and ensuing fiscal years.

DiNapoli projects tax receipts are expected to rise 4.7 percent, or $3.1 billion, in the current fiscal year, with most of that growth having already been received due to payments on prior-year obligations in April 2013. DiNapoli’s projections for All Funds tax receipts are $69.4 billion, or $71 million higher than the latest estimates from the Division of the Budget (DOB) for SFY 2013-14. His projection of $71.1 billion is $42 million higher than DOB estimates for SFY 2014-15 and of $75.3 billion is $20 million lower than DOB projections for SFY 2015-16. 

State tax revenues for the first six months of SFY 2013-14 were $54.9 million below revised projections in DOB’s First Quarterly Update to the Financial Plan. While the state has received higher miscellaneous receipts than projected, there is uncertainty regarding several hundred million dollars of other revenues that are included in the revised Financial Plan for the current fiscal year but have yet to be received.

DiNapoli estimates that Personal Income Tax receipts in SFY 2013-14 will increase by $2.3 billion (5.7 percent) from the previous year. This increase primarily reflects the non-recurring settlement of Personal Income Tax liabilities related to tax year 2012, with prior-year estimated payments made in April increasing by 62 percent. For SFY 2014-15, Personal Income Tax receipts are expected to increase by 3.5 percent. Growth is expected to be helped by a 7 percent increase in Withholding Tax collections as wage growth continues to increase and current year estimated payments are forecast to increase by 15 percent.

DiNapoli projects that spending for public assistance from All Funds and State Operating Funds will moderately exceed DOB’s latest available projections. School aid and Medicaid spending would significantly exceed caps enacted in the SFY 2011-12 Budget if those caps and the ability to hold down spending to stay within those caps were not in place.

Actual and Estimated Receipts and Disbursements, State Operating Funds
SFY 2012-13 through SFY 2015-16

(in millions of dollars)

quick start image 110513

 

For a copy of the Quick Start report visit: http://www.osc.state.ny.us/reports/budget/2013/quickstart_2013-14.pdf

 


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