Reports

Better-than-projected revenues and planned cost savings benefited New York City’s budget outlook for Fiscal Year 2025, but outyear budget gaps remain large due to the end of federal pandemic aid and a lack of federal funding to support asylum seeker costs. Additional City funding for education and social services programs that support working-class families may be needed if those programs will be maintained at current levels in the future.  

New York City faces spending risks that could increase its budget gaps for Fiscal Years 2025 through 2027 to an average of $12.6 billion annually, fueled by spending choices made during the pandemic, underbudgeting for recurring spending, and significant costs associated with the influx of asylum seekers into the five boroughs. While many of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control, preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigating this uncertainty.

New York City’s finances continue to benefit from better-than-projected revenues and savings generated through initiatives launched in response to its financial challenges. While many of the fiscal challenges facing the City are not in its direct control — including the continued influx of asylum seekers, elevated demand for City programs due to an uneven recovery and the potential for federal and State actions that could further pressure City finances — preparation remains paramount to navigating this uncertainty.

Stronger-than-anticipated revenue and savings initiatives will allow New York City to maintain budget balance in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, but the City faces significant financial pressures that are likely to exacerbate already large out-year budget gaps. Budget balance in FY 2024 comes as the City is returning to a revenue composition that more closely resembles pre-pandemic norms, moving away from reliance on federal relief aid.

New York City’s $104.8 billion preliminary fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget has benefitted from better-than-projected revenue collections, the reallocation of unused federal pandemic relief funds and savings initiatives. The Comptroller's office assumes that a number of the fiscal risks the City currently faces will continue, increasing the planned budget gap to about $8.9 billion in FY 2025 and $13.9 billion in FY 2027, even when adjusting for stronger revenue collections.

New York City’s fiscal year (FY) 2023 budget is projected to rise to $109.4, after transfers, but City finances could come under pressure amid a slowing economic recovery and an increase in demand for City services. For the upcoming FY 2024 preliminary budget, State Comptroller DiNapoli urges the City to provide a realistic and transparent view of the City’s revenue and expenses and take actions to close out-year gaps while maintaining critical services.

New York City’s fiscal position has significantly improved since June 2021. However, this was mostly due to unanticipated resources generated from a combination of factors that is not likely to occur at the same level again, and some factors have already begun to reverse. Total revenues are expected to decline by 9.4 percent in FY 2023 due to lower tax revenues and federal aid for COVID-19 relief. In total, OSC calculated risks to the City’s budget that could exceed $2 billion annually by FY 2024. The risk assessment grows to $5.9 billion in FY 2026, which could raise the budget gap in that year to nearly $9.9 billion.

New York City’s FY 2023 Budget and April Financial Plan shows the city has benefited from stronger-than-anticipated tax collections, outsized federal grant revenue from relief programs, savings in pension contributions from extraordinary asset gains in FY 2021, and announced additional savings programs, including significant vacancy reductions. However, better-than-projected fiscal performance may be short-lived amid inflation, geopolitical tension and supply chain issues.

The February Plan benefits from New York City’s continued economic resilience in 2021 and includes more proactive planning to fund budget risks and generate savings. The City is expecting to generate a surplus of $3.7 billion in fiscal year 2022 due to federal aid, better-than-projected tax revenues, and planned savings. The surplus could reach at least $4.5 billion if revenue and spending remain on their current tracks.

New York City’s published financial plan includes funding for some recurring spending initiatives for only a limited period, creating additional risks to already identified budget gaps. The Office of the State Comptroller has created a tool to identify sources and uses of funds for City programs that are not fully funded during the remaining years of the City’s financial plan, through Fiscal Year 2025

New York City forecasts a surplus of $965 million in the fiscal year ending in June 2022, based largely on the receipt of $750 million in unrestricted federal aid, and projects outyear gaps to drop by nearly a third from earlier estimates. Despite the positive news, the Office of the State Comptroller has identified several risks that could pose challenges to the City’s budget in the future.

On June 30, 2021, New York City adopted its $98.7 billion budget for fiscal year 2022. Excluding federal aid, the City will fund about $2 billion more in spending than was planned in its proposed executive budget in April, after adjusting for surplus transfers and money set aside for reserves. 

One year after COVID-19 caused the sharpest economic contraction on record and exposed New York City’s finances to substantial risks, the City’s economy and finances are on the mend, thanks largely to unprecedented federal economic stimulus for businesses and individuals, and direct federal relief to New York State, New York City and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

The COVID-19 pandemic ended a period of economic expansion in New York City during which new records for population, tourism, employment, and property values were achieved. As a result, City revenues grew rapidly from FY 2010 to FY 2019, enabling City spending to grow by 55 percent, nearly four times the rate of inflation, and provide a budget cushion of more than 10 percent of City-funded revenues at the start of FY 2020.

The economic, social and budgetary fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City has been unprecedented, while the loss of life has been unimaginable. As we enter 2021, the pandemic remains a threat to our health and economy as we face rising case and hospitalization figures as well as renewed restrictions to manage the public health risks.

The economic, social and budgetary fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic on New York City has been unprecedented, while the loss of life has been unimaginable. Restrictions put in place to slow the spread of the disease triggered a national recession. In New York City, job losses in March and April were the largest since the Great Depression.

New York City has been the epicenter of the novel coronavirus pandemic in the United States. The economic, social and budgetary impacts have been unprecedented, while the loss of life has been unimaginable.

On January 16, 2020, the City of New York released a four-year financial plan for fiscal years 2020 through 2024 (the “January Plan”). The January Plan reflects the strength in the local economy, which has helped fuel personal and business tax collections; new agency needs; and an expansion in the citywide savings program.

On November 22, 2019, the City of New York released a revised four-year financial plan for fiscal years 2020 through 2023 (the “November Plan”). The November Plan reflects an upward revision in the City’s revenue forecast for FY 2020, increased agency spending and a citywide savings program to narrow the FY 2021 budget gap.

New York City is currently experiencing the largest and longest job expansion in the post– World War II period. Since 2009, the City has added 820,400 jobs, bringing employment to a record level of 4.55 million in 2018 and reducing the annual unemployment rate to 4.1 percent, the lowest on record.