Since early 2020, enrollees in New York Medicaid have not had to renew their coverage due to COVID-19 public health emergency. With federal legislation ending continuous Medicaid coverage in March 2023, New York State began the process of redetermining eligibility for every enrolled individual. Based on recent trends, this report estimates “unwinding” may not meet projections in the Division of the Budget’s Mid-Year Update to the Enacted Budget Financial Plan, adding costs to the State budget.